Task 4.6

JRAP #6

Operational oceanography and coastal forecasting

Lead: SOCIB (Baptise Moore)

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Operational regional models (hydrodynamical, biogeochemical, waves) have been settled in a number of European coastal observatories in support of local multiplatform observing infrastructures so as to better respond to societal needs, and help in the implementation of the MSFD using the best available scientific knowledge. Operational ocean modelling is still however highly challenging when approaching the coastline due to the intrinsic variability of the coastal ocean.

There have been significant advances over the last five years in terms of availability of multiplatform observations in coastal observatories (e.g. JERICO (FP7) project), allowing a new detailed evaluation of model results. JRAP#6 will show the importance of JERICO-NEXT observations to support operational oceanography in response to societal questions and policy requirements. JRAP#6 will assess operational regional models implemented in the coastal ocean, leading to recommendations for European coastal forecasting system improvements, both in terms of models and observations.

• Involved JERICO Infrastructure (short names)

  JRAP#6 will consider the whole set of JERICO-NEXT multiplatform observations (multiparametric buoys, FerryBoxes, HF radar and underwater gliders). Seven European coastal areas have been selected for implementation because of key science and societal relevance (among others;

  1. shelf/open ocean exchanges,

  2. mesoscale dynamics,

  3. water masses formation,

  4. horizontal and vertical mixing,

  5. upwelling,

  6. wind-driven circulation,

  7. Fjords and river plumes water masses adjustment): the Atlantic Iberian margin (1,2,4,5), South-East Bay of Biscay (1,2,4,6), Balearic Sea (1,2,3,4), Adriatic-Ionian basin (3,4,5,6), Aegean Sea (1,2,3,4), Baltic Sea and Norwegian coast (1,2,3,4,6,7).

• Work plan and specific links with other WPs showing JERICO added value 

  JRAP #6 will address the assessment and improvement of European operational coastal forecasting systems (eg, harmful algae blooms, oil spill applications, drifting of gelatinous organisms, eggs and larvae dispersion, maritime search and rescue operations). It will include three stages listed hereafter.

  • JRAP#6.1 (M1-M18): numerical simulations without data assimilation will be evaluated using fixed buoys, FerryBoxes, HF radar, underwater gliders, surface drifters and coastal research vessel CTDs, and Argo floats.

  • JRAP#6.2 (M12-M40): data-assimilative models will be assessed and used to perform Observing System Experiments (OSEs) to quantify the impact of existing coastal observations on model performances.

  • JRAP#6.3 (M18-M36): based these outcomes, gaps and needs of present modelling systems will be identified, leading to recommendations in terms of modelling system improvements. Observing System Simulation Experiments (OSSEs) will also be carried out to define optimal sampling strategies and provide recommendations for future coastal observing systems.

• Expected results (outcomes to other WPs)

  The JERICO coastal ocean infrastructure network provides a unique opportunity to study operational forecast capabilities in the European coastal ocean, assess the existing skills, gaps and needs, and establish a road map for improvements in terms of modelling and observing systems. This will feed task 1.6 with regards to the strategy for the future. JRAP #6 will contribute to an improved evaluation of the European coastal forecasting system both in terms of modelling strategy and observing system requirements.

Deliverables:

Proposed deliverables are cross-cutting the 6 JRAPs, they intend to report the progress status and results during the whole duration of WP4.

D4.1 will report the topical scientific strategy of each JRAP, according to discussions and interaction with task 1.2 of WP1. (Month 9)

D4.2 will report progress following JRAP’s preparation (in lab and in field operations). It will also take care of gathering WP2 and WP3 outcomes dedicated to JRAPs (Month 12)

D4.3 will report progress following JRAP’s implementation. A specific attention will be paid to insure the data flows following the European channels according to standardization procedures set up in WP5.(Month 24).

D4.4 will report the first results of each JRAP, region per region. It will also show how results are delivered to WP8 and data to WP5. (Month 36).

D4.5 will report the final results, to valorise JERICO added value. It will also include a prospective chapter to propose monitoring and study strategies for future for each of the 6 topics. This will partly feed the task 1.6 (Month 43).