Action #2: The performance of operational forecast models

Objectives: The Action will analyse and disseminate discrepancies in hydrography and biogeochemistry between in-situ and CMEMS operational forecast model products at the GoF PSS. The main outcome of the topic is the conclusive report of the model performances in the area. Possible sources of the discrepancies will be discussed and instructions for users of the products will be provided.

Action Lead and other Partners (with contact persons): TALTECH (Liblik), SYKE (Seppälä, Ehrhart), FMI (Laakso), IOW (Rehder)

JS3 Platforms included: FerryBox: Silja Serenade, Finnmaid, Silja Europa (SYKE, FMI, IOW, TALTECH), Utö Observatory (FMI, SYKE), Keri Observatory (TALTECH); Gliders (FMI, TALTECH), profiling buoys (FMI, SYKE, TALTECH), Argo floats (FMI), monitoring by R/V (All),

Other data sources and external partners for implementation: Data from the data repositories, such as the ICES HELCOM database will be included if necessary. 

Overall timetable of action: Data will be collected in February 2020 – September 2021, the analysis will be conducted from October 2021 – May 2022.

Description of action: The GoF is well known for its rapid temporal changes in the physical and biogeochemical parameters. Thus, the core analysis will be based on measurements at observatories (Keri and Utö) and FerryBox systems. Latter will be supported by the data from other sources. To compile a comprehensive analysis of the model performance, data will be shared transnationally and trans-institutionally. The enhanced understanding of the model performance will lead to the increased societal value of observations and CMEMS operational forecast model products.

Further actions are planned:

  • Collection of the data (February 2020 – September 2021).
  • Compiling the datasets (August – October 2021).
  • Analyses of the discrepancies between in-situ measurements and CMEMS operative model products in hydrography and biogeochemistry (November 2021 – March 2022).
  • Compiling conclusive report (April-May 2022).

Best practices used or developed: Validation characteristics, e.g. necessary temporal and spatial resolution, which most adequately describes the processes in the GoF will be agreed upon among partners.

Data flows: Action will not arrange operative data flows but collects the data from partners in autumn 2021. This link the action to WP7 T7.5 D2PTS, where regional data products will be generated.  

Data QC routines Action not deal with QC routines but relies on GoF PSS #1 and on WP7 T7.5 D2PTS.

Data management issues: Minor issues can occur when partners must agree on data formats.

Expected results: The Action streamlines observations and modelling by different partners of GoF PSS. The main result from this collaboration is the improved understanding of the operative model performances in the GoF PSS area. The discrepancies between the observations and model results, and the observed challenges in the process, will provide valuable feedback for future improvements.

Users of results: Researchers dealing with the Eastern Baltic Sea, authorities responsible for the assessments of the environmental status of marine areas.

Dissemination of results: Results will be shared by JERICO e-infrastructure. The Action provides information to the GoF PSS #5. Results will be disseminated both to the modelling and observing communities, e.g. through BOOS annual meetings.

Links: The Action will provide input to WP2 T2.4 in providing insight on existing observational and technological gaps in the region. Action has a direct link to WP7, T7.5, regional pilot of D2PTS #3, which provides regional multiplatform observations products.